Three Lions Face Tough NL Test
England continue their NL campaign on Saturday when Thomas Tuchel’s side travel to Rijeka to face Croatia in an important Group A3 contest. Read our preview of the big match!
The two nations already know each other particularly well. They met in June, when England eventually emerged with a 4-2 victory after an entertaining group-stage encounter in Dallas, and they have experienced contrasting starts to their NL campaigns.
Both have three points after two matches. England lost 3-2 against world champions Spain at Wembley before responding with a 2-0 victory away to Czechia, while Croatia opened with a 2-1 success in Czechia before suffering a 4-1 defeat against Spain on Tuesday.
With Spain already setting the pace in a difficult group, neither Croatia nor England can afford to lose too much ground.
Match Analysis
England’s response to losing against Spain was exactly what Thomas Tuchel needed. The 3-2 defeat at Wembley was frustrating because England contributed heavily to their own downfall. Defensive mistakes presented Spain with opportunities, and Harry Kane also missed a penalty in a match that England could easily have taken something from.
There were nevertheless positives. Anthony Gordon and Kane both scored, and England demonstrated that they could compete aggressively with a Spain team that arrived as both European and world champions.
Tuesday’s trip to Czechia required a very different type of performance. England eventually won 2-0, although their task became significantly easier when Pavel Šulc was sent off after only 23 minutes. The Three Lions had to wait until the second half to break the deadlock, with Gordon heading home a Trent Alexander-Arnold cross before Kane added the second in the 69th minute.
Tuchel may have wanted more goals against ten men, but the result was the priority. England now travel to Croatia with three points from their opening two fixtures and another difficult away game ahead.
Tuchel has made it clear that he does not intend to rotate his team simply for the sake of managing workloads during this extended international period. The England coach has spoken about maintaining a consistent core of six or seven players and described suggestions that he should rest players because of club commitments as “madness”.
That approach suggests several of England’s most important players will start again in Rijeka. Kane is an obvious example.
The captain scored against both Spain and Czechia and also has very recent positive memories of facing Croatia. When these countries met in Dallas, Kane scored twice as England recorded a 4-2 victory.
Croatia actually equalised twice during the first half through Martin Baturina and Petar Musa, but England took control after the interval. Jude Bellingham restored the lead with an excellent individual goal before Marcus Rashford completed the scoring late on.
It was a match that exposed Croatia defensively. Their problems continued into the knockout stage, where Portugal eliminated them in the round of 32, and there has subsequently been a change of manager.
Slaven Bilić is now back in charge of his country, almost two decades after beginning his first spell as Croatia’s national coach.
His second spell started positively. Croatia travelled to Czechia in their opening NL match and won 2-1, with Luka Modrić and Marco Pašalić scoring the goals. It was an encouraging beginning against a Czech side capable of making life difficult for any opponent at home.
Tuesday provided a much harsher reality check. Spain beat Croatia 4-1, with Lamine Yamal scoring twice and Marc Pubill and Nico Williams also finding the net. Dion Beljo briefly equalised after Yamal’s opening goal, but Croatia were ultimately unable to live with the speed and quality of Spain’s attacking football.
The manner of that defeat will concern Bilić ahead of England’s visit. Croatia remain technically excellent in possession. Modrić continues to provide control and experience in midfield, while Baturina represents an important part of the transition towards a younger generation.
But England demonstrated this summer that they can hurt Croatia when the game becomes stretched. That could again be decisive on Saturday.
Croatia will not want to sit deep at home, and Bilić’s side are generally most comfortable when they can establish possession through midfield. England should therefore have opportunities to attack spaces that simply were not available against ten-man Czechia.
Gordon could be particularly important. He has scored in both of England’s NL matches so far and offers directness from the left. His willingness to attack defenders and make runs beyond Kane gives England a different dimension to the combination play they can produce through Bellingham and Bukayo Saka.
England’s other obvious weapon is Alexander-Arnold. His cross created Gordon’s opening goal against Czechia, and his passing range could be extremely valuable if Croatia attempt to press England higher up the pitch.
Tuchel will nevertheless want more control than England showed against Spain. Declan Rice’s absence remains significant. Rice was one of five players, alongside Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento, forced to withdraw from the squad before the NL campaign began.
Without him, England do not possess quite the same defensive security in midfield. That matters against Croatia because Modrić remains capable of controlling the tempo if given time, while Baturina can carry the ball into more advanced positions.
England therefore need to decide how aggressively they want to press. Allow Croatia to settle into possession and the hosts have enough technical quality to make the match uncomfortable. Push too many players forward, however, and England risk leaving spaces between midfield and defence.
The last meeting demonstrated that Croatia can punish those mistakes. They scored twice against England and repeatedly caused problems during a chaotic first half before Tuchel’s team established control after the break.
There is also an unusual atmosphere surrounding Saturday’s game. The match in Rijeka will be played behind closed doors as a result of a sanction against Croatia following crowd trouble during last season’s NL quarter-final against France. That removes some of the normal home advantage associated with travelling to Croatia.
England will not have to deal with a hostile Croatian crowd, and that could make it easier for Tuchel’s players to establish their own rhythm.
For Croatia, the challenge is to show that the heavy defeat against Spain was an exception rather than evidence of deeper defensive problems.
For England, this is an opportunity to build momentum after Tuesday’s victory and strengthen their position in a group where Spain already look extremely difficult to catch.
Team News
England remain without the five players who withdrew earlier in the international window. Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento are unavailable, with Morgan Gibbs-White and James Garner having been called into the squad following the withdrawals.
Tuchel’s comments about maintaining a consistent core suggest wholesale changes are unlikely.
Kane should continue through the middle after scoring against both Spain and Czechia, while Gordon has made a strong case to retain his position after finding the net in both NL matches.
Bellingham and Saka remain central to England’s attacking plans, while Alexander-Arnold strengthened his case for another start by creating the opening goal in Czechia.
Croatia are likely to continue building around the experience of Modrić, who reached 200 international appearances during the summer.
Baturina provides creativity further forward, while Beljo could push for another start after scoring against Spain.
Bilić may consider defensive changes following Tuesday’s 4-1 defeat, particularly with England having scored four times against Croatia only three months ago.
Betting Tips
Both teams to score at 1.58 is our preferred selection.
England to win at 1.82 is our main selection.
Croatia are dangerous enough to make this considerably more difficult than England’s victory in Czechia, and the hosts have already demonstrated their ability by winning their opening NL fixture away from home.
However, the recent meetings provide reasons to favour England. Tuchel’s side beat Croatia 4-2 this summer and possess the pace in attacking areas to exploit the same defensive weaknesses Spain exposed on Tuesday. Playing behind closed doors also reduces Croatia’s normal home advantage.
Harry Kane to score anytime at 1.85 is another option.
Kane has scored in each of England’s first two NL matches and struck twice against Croatia in June. His movement inside the penalty area should again cause problems for a Croatian defence coming directly from conceding four against Spain.
Croatia have enough midfield quality to ensure England will not dominate throughout, but the visitors possess more attacking options and have already shown this year that they can hurt Bilić’s side.
Our prediction: Croatia 1-2 England
Please note that the odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last updated: 02.10.26
